小概率高损失事件的忽略——对中国发展巨灾保险的意义

The impact of neglecting events of small probabilities and high losses on the catastrophe insurance development in China

地震、洪水和台风等都属于小概率高损失的巨灾风险,一旦发生将给社会和人们的生活带来破坏性的后果。研究表明,巨灾事件的发生会极大地改变公众对风险或损失的预期和感知。在巨灾事件发生时以及一段时间内,由于风险信息的显著性和可获得性,公众会产生暂时的紧张和恐惧心理,随着时间的流逝,人们会慢慢从非理性中冷静下来,意识到巨灾风险发生的概率是如此之小,过度的担心是没有必要的。这对于巨灾风险制度的发展产生了重要的影响,因此,分析和研究公众对巨灾风险的感知、提出相应的巨灾保险发展的对策建议具有重要的理论和实践意义。

The catastrophes, with small probability but high losses, such as earthquake, flood, and typhoon, usually brings destructive damages to the society. Studies indicate that the occurrence of catastrophes can dramatically change people＇s perception to risk and loss. Due to the high visibility and attainability of the risk information in the wake of a catastrophic event, people tend to feel acute tension and fear. But over time, they will calm down and real- ize that the probability of catastrophe is too small to deserve excessive worry. Based on the analysis of public perception to catastrophes, this article makes several suggestions on catastrophe insurance development both theoretically and practically.