我国分红险收益分布研究

A research on return distribution of participating insurance in China

寿险公司分红保险具有最低保障利率,并能使投保人分享保险公司的经营成果,但很多购买分红保险的投保人对其收益分布并不了解。本文利用随机模拟方法给出我国分红险的收益分布。结果表明分红合约在风险与收益的平衡方面有较好性质。如果保险人的投资组合的波动率较高,分红合约的收益相对资产组合有显著的下方保护作用。由于实际中寿险投资组合波动率并不很高,如果市场风险溢价较高,选择直接投资到资产组合会以较大概率获得比分红合约更高的收益。

The participating insurance products have minimum guaranteed interest rates ,and enable the insured to share the good performance of insurance companies. However, many people who purchase the products do not fully understand their income distributions. This paper applied the stochastic method to simulate the distribution of returns from participating insurance products, and the results showed that participating insurance had a good balance between risks and benefits. When the insured＇s portfolio has a high volatility, participating insurance can offer a buffer of minimum returns. Since the actual life insurance investment portfolio is not highly volatile, investing in the portfolio directly will be more likely to yield a higher return than the participating contracts when a high risk premium prevails in the market.