外资银行渗透对中国银行业体系稳定性的影响--基于阶段理论与演化理论的实证研究

The Impact of Foreign Bank Penetration on the Stability of China's Banking System

基于阶段理论分析方法,本文从演化和发展的角度研究外资银行渗透对于中国银行业体系稳定性的影响,并选取1999～2008年数据进行实证研究。研究发现,中国银行业在开放的过程中,伴随外资银行渗透,银行体系稳定性的演化过程也可粗略地看出倒"U"形态,与阶段性理论基本相吻合。此外,在危机期间,外资银行在中国采取的微观战略也是影响中国银行业体系稳定性的重要因素。

In the past several years, foreign banks have entered into our market step by step. In December 2006, the banking system was entirely open to foreign banks. Based on the stage analysis and from the perspective of evolution and development, this article aims at the impact of foreign bank penetration on the stability of China＇ s banking system. The empirical research on the statistics from 1999 to 2008 shows that following the opening up of China＇ s banking industry, along with the foreign banks penetrating, the evolution course of the stability of China＇ s banking system roughly appears to be a reversed ＂U＂ , which basically coincides with the stage theory. Additionally, the micro-strategies adopted by the foreign banks in China during the crisis are also important factors that influence the stability of China＇ s banking system.