污染减排影响经济发展的投入产出模型及实证分析

Impact of pollution emission reduction measures on input-output model of economic development and empirical analysis

构建了环境经济投入产出模型,针对淘汰落后产能对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,定量计算了2006～2007年间淘汰落后产能对于经济社会发展的贡献度和影响.研究表明,虽然淘汰落后产能对于传统的国民经济发展指标有一定负面影响,但对于优化经济增长方式确实起到了积极作用.一是优化了产业结构,第一、二、三产业结构由2005年的12.4%,48.6%,39.0%调整为2006年的12.5%,48.2%和39.3%,2007年调整为12.6%,47.8%和39.6%,第二产业所占比重逐步下降,第三产业所占比重逐步上升;在第二产业内部,造纸、食品、电力、炼焦、金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品业等重污染行业的增加值所占比重持续下降,产业结构逐步得到优化.二是提高了经济效率,从涉及到的造纸、食品、电力、炼焦、金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品业6个产业部门2006年和2007年的COD和SO2的产污系数看,都比2005年有所降低.2006年和2007年,食品制造业的单位增加值COD排放量比2005年分别下降了6.6%和25.0%;金属冶炼及压延加工业的单位增加值SO2排放量比2005年分别下降3.5%和6.9%.

The environmental economic input-output model was built, and an empirical study on the impact of backward productive capacity elimination on economic development was conducted and the contribution and influence of backward productive capacity elimination in 20062007 on economic and social development was quantitatively calculated. Although eliminating backward productive capacity had some adverse impact on the traditional indicator of national economic development, it played a positive role in optimizing economic growth mode. Firstly, it optimized industrial structure, second and third industrial structures were adjusted from 12.4%, 48.6% and 39.0% in 2005 to 12.5%, 48.2% and 39.3% in 2006 and 12.6%, 47.8% and 39.6% in 2007. In the second industry, the proportion of the added values of heavy pollution industries such as food, electricity, coking, metal smelting and nonmetallic mineral product industries decreased continuously and industrial structure was gradually optimized. Secondly, it increased economic efficiency. The pollutants producing coefficients of COD and SO2 of the six industrial sectors including papermaking, food, electricity, coking, metal smelting and nonmetallic mineral product in 2006 and 2007 decreased to some extent compared with 2005. In 2006 and 2007, COD emission per unit added value of the food manufacturing industry decreased 6.6% and 25.0% respectively compared with 2005 and SO2 emission per unit added value of the metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased 3.5% and 6.9% respectively compared with 2005.