中国贸易顺差的结构特征及成因研究——基于两贸易品跨期均衡消费理论的实证分析

Research on the Structure and Causes of China's Trade Surplus:Empirical Analysis Based on Intertemporal Optimizing Model of Two Tradables Consumption

本文首先从商品耐用性角度考察中国贸易顺差的内部结构特征,然后通过建立两贸易品跨期均衡消费理论模型和相应的计量模型,对中国耐用和非耐用品贸易收支变动原因进行了实证研究。结果表明,非耐用品贸易顺差是中国贸易顺差的首要来源,但其增速远低于耐用贸易品。从长期看,国内实际资本存量快速扩张是推动耐用和非耐用品贸易顺差不断走高的根本因素,国内实际消费支出上升和非耐用品跨时价格下降是抑制非耐用品贸易顺差的有力因素,而国内实际消费支出上升对耐用品贸易顺差不存在显著抑制作用。本文还分析了相关变量间的短期动态关系,并根据长短期的分析结果,提出相应的政策建议。

From the durability of tradable goods, this paper investigates the structure characteristics of china＇s trade surplus. Then ,based on the two tradables intertemporal optimizing theory model and corresponding econometric model ,this paper also analyzes the causes of trade surplus of durables and nondurables. Empirical test shows that nondurables trade is the first source of china＇s trade surplus. In the long run,the surplus of nondurables trade is increasing due to the positive effect from real capital stock exceeding the negative effect from nondurable intertemporal price and domestic real consumption expenditure. The surplus of durables trade is increasing strongly because domestic real consumption expenditure has no negative effect on the surplus of durables significantly.