基于集对分析理论的发电投资决策模型

Power Generation Investment Decision-Making Model Based on Set Pair Analysis Theory

在市场环境下,发电投资面临的诸多不确定因素将导致发电投资收益的不确定性,这需要发电投资决策评价方法来辅助发电商进行投资决策。为此首先分析了集对分析(set pair analysis,SPA)理论和发电投资的成本–效益问题;然后采用蒙特卡罗法对上网电价、煤炭价格和上网电量等不确定性因素进行模拟,得出发电投资的不确定性损失序列,并利用SPA对损失序列进行同、异、反特性描述,给出求解联系度系数的方法;在此基础上构建了基于SPA的发电投资决策模型,探讨了不确定数i的确定方法;最后通过算例证明了所构建模型的可行性,为发电商提供投资决策依据。

In market investment has to face with environment, power generation a lot of uncertain factors that lead to uncertainty of power generation investment income, thus it is necessary for power generation company to use generation investment decision-making evaluation. Firstly the set pair analysis theory （SPA） and cost-benefit problem of generation investment are analyzed; secondly, the fluctuation of uncertain factors such as bidding price, coal price and trading electricity quantity are simulated by Monte Carlo method and the loss suite of generation investment due to uncertain factors is obtained, then the uniform-, different- and contrarycharacteristics of loss suite are described by SPA, and then the method to solve relational degree coefficient is given; thirdly, on this basis, the generation investment decision-making model based on SPA is constructed and the approach to decide uncertain number is given; finally, the feasibility of the constructed model is verified by calculation examples.