2009年经济形势与2010年宏观调控政策取向分析

An Analysis of the Economic Situation in 2009 and the Macro-control Policy Orientation in 2010

本文集中阐述了由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机对我国经济发展造成的严重冲击;中央适时采取积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,大力度刺激内需和经济发展,取得了显著成效;经济增长从2009年二季度开始企稳回升,预计全年增长8%以上。本文分析2010年,尽管经济回升势头较好,但国内外经济环境依然比较严峻,经济回升基础不稳固,变数较多,关键是要保持宏观调控政策的连续和稳定,继而论证了继续实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策的必要性和可行性,在政策取向上应坚持扩大内需特别是扩大消费,同时不放弃外需,不失时机地调整和优化经济结构,健全市场机制,激活民间力量,使中国经济发展的好势头持续健康地保持下去。

This paper elaborates the serious impact of the international finance crisis caused by American loan crisis on our country economic development. The Central Committee adopts the positive financial policy and the moderate loose monetary policy to stimulate the domestic demand and the economic development,which made remarkable progress. The economy started to grow from the second quarter of 2009,the whole year will grow more than 8%. This paper analyzes that the economy will continue to grow in 2010,but the domestic and foreign economic environments are quite still stern,the growing foundation is unstable and there are many uncertain factors. The key is to maintain the macroeconomic regulation and control policy continually and stably. We subsequently discusse the necessity and feasibility of implementing the positive financial policy and the moderate loose monetary policy. The policy orientation should insist on expanding the domestic demand,especially expanding consuming demand and simultaneously not give up outside demand,and adjust and optimize the economic structure,improve the market mechanism to ensure the China economy to continually develop.