欠发达资源富集区产业结构演进及其目标取向与主体效应

A Study on Industrial Structure Aimed at Revenue and Income Goals-Oriented and Main-Body Domino Effect in URRR

在国家、省域及案例地区等区域尺度上,通过计量经济模型,利用SPSS15.0软件测算了各主体收入变化及其主要影响因素,对比分析了经济发展程度和资源富集程度不同的区域其产业结构对主体收入的影响差异,以探寻欠发达资源富集区产业结构演进与主体收入间相互作用规律,以及不同发展阶段的结构演进目标取向差异。通过比较分析得出:发展中国家和发达国家间产业结构演进与主体收入水平差异显著;欠发达资源富集省域与沿海经济发达省域产业结构差异显著;案例区(贵州省毕节地区)产业结构演进中目标取向及结构效应呈阶段性特征,且经济发展已到转型临界点。

In transition periods,the direction of industrial development and industrial competitiveness are urgent to be studied in URRR.Based on different regional scales like countries,provinces as well as prefecture,the authors examined changes in income of main bodies and the main influencing factors by using an econometric model and related techniques.The paper also presents the differences in how much the industry structure influences the income of the main bodies.Mechanisms of the interaction between the evolution and the goal orientation of the industrial structure in URRR were also examined.In this present work,Bijie Prefecture,a typical URRR having clear rules in evolution of the industrial structure and increases in income of the main bodies were investigated.Data was obtained from statistics of China Compendium for the period 1949-2004,China Statistical Yearbook 2005-2006,China Regional Statistical Yearbook 2000-2005,and U.S.Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and historical statistics of Japan.It was concluded that there existed a distinct contrast between developed countries and developing countries,as well as between developed regions and developing regions.For the U.S.and Japan,the GDP,revenue and income of urban and rural residents benefited from three industries evenly.However,in China,the contribution ratios of the secondary industry to GDP and revenue were greatly higher than that of the primary industry and tertiary industry.The income of rural residents was primarily from the primary industry.At the same time,over the eastern coastal developed provinces,such as Shanghai and Guangdong,GDP,revenue and urban resident incomes mainly came from the secondary industry and tertiary industry,showing relatively balanced contribution ratios for three industries.But over less developed regions like Guizhou province,the development of the secondary industry has significant advantages and contributed greatly to the growth of GDP,revenue and urban resident income,which was highly independent of rural resident income.The economic development of Bijie Prefecture are experiencing a transition period,showing stage changes and varied characteristics of industrial evolution with different goal-oriented and structure effects.