基于SVECM的我国经济增长动态效应的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Dynamic Effects of China's Economic Growth Based on SVECM

本文应用结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM),实证分析1990-2008年我国投资、消费、进出口对经济增长的动态效应。实证结果显示:消费对经济的短期和长期冲击均高于投资和进出口,消费对投资冲击大于投资对消费冲击,消费和投资未产生相互挤出效应;经济波动以消费为主,世界经济波动对我国经济波动显著增强。

In this paper, we analyze the dynamic effects of investment, consumption, import and export on economic growth in China during the year of 1980 to 2008 using the structural vector error correction model （SVECM）. The empirical results show that the short-term and long-term impacts on the economy of consumption are higher than that of investment and import and export, the shock of consumption to investment is greater than that of investment to consumption; consumption and investment has no crowding-out effect, the economic fluctuations have originated from the consumer, the world economic fluctuations have more remarkable influences on domestic economic fluctuations.