基于2005年ICP数据分析人民币汇率长期走势

Analysis of the Lasting Trend of the Exchange Rate of RMB Based on ICP's Datum in 2005 Year

分析并比较了国际比较项目组(ICP)以1993年和2005年为基准年的2005年世界各国的货币购买力和汇率数据,得出了对于发展中国家而言,在经济持续快速增长时期,其汇率将逐步趋向于货币的购买力;对于发达的经济体而言,其长期均衡汇率就是货币的购买力的结论。最后运用动态购买力平价理论分析得出升值将是人民币汇率的长期趋势。

This paper analyzes and compares the datum of purchasing power parity and exchange rate of countries worldwide in 2005 year, the datum is provided by the international comparison project （ICP） for the base yeas in 1993 and 2005. Conclusion can be made as follows： in the period of lasting and rapid growth, the exchange rate of developing countries will gradually tend to the purchasing power parity; The long-run equilibrium exchange rate of developed countries is the purchasing power parity. Finally, this paper points out that the appreciation will be the lasting trend of the exchange rate of RMB by dynamic purchasing power parity theory.