职业体育联盟竞争平衡的测量与分析

The Measurement and Analysis of Competitive Balance in Professional Team Sports Leagues

采用文献资料调研、逻辑分析和数理统计等方法,以经济学、体育学理论为基础对职业体育赛事结果的不确定性、竞争平衡以及竞争平衡的测量进行分析研究,结果表明,赛事结果的不确定性和竞争平衡是职业体育联赛发展过程中的两个基本特征,存在着内在的逻辑关系;竞争平衡带来赛事结果的不确定性,赛事结果的不确定性是提高赛事的市场价值的关键因素;测量竞争平衡的方法有3种,这3种测量方法都具有优势和局限性。采用竞争平衡率法CBR对NBA、英超、中超3个联赛的4个赛季的竞争平衡率进行了测量,分析了欧、美之间竞争平衡的差异。

Through using the method of literature review, logic analysis and mathematical statistics, this paper investigated the uncertainty of outcome, competitive balance and the measure of competitive balance. The result shows that the uncertainty of outcome results and competitive balance are two basic characteristics in the development of professional sports leagues. They are intrinsically related. Competitive balance brings about the uncertainty of outcome. The uncertainty of outcome is the key factor to improve the market value of a game. There are so far three ways to measure the competitive balance. Each of them has its advantages and disadvantages. CBR method is first adopted to measure the competitive balance of the three leagues NBA, PL, and CSL in four seasons. And the difference between Europe and America is then analyzed.