未来中国成品油供需及对东北亚市场的影响

The outlook of refined oil product supply and demand in China and the influence to market of Northeast Asia

结合中国经济发展增速、人口变化、汽车保有量增长、百公里油耗下降,以及客货运输等发展前景,预计2015年中国汽油、柴油、煤油需求量将分别达到9350万吨、17900万吨和2500万吨。根据炼油能力规划,届时中国的汽油、柴油、煤油产量预计可分别达到8950万吨、18200万吨和2600万吨。2010—2015年,中国的成品油市场将由目前的有少量缺口转为基本平衡。但由于亚太地区特别是日本、韩国炼油能力过剩的矛盾突出,且日、韩油品质量标准较高,未来其成品油出口到中国的竞争力将会增强。未来中国将对东北亚成品油供需的增长起主导作用;中国成品油战略储备的建立将对地区供需起到稳定作用;逐步放开的中国成品油市场将对东北亚地区成品油期货市场的建立起到推动作用。

Taking into account factors such as the growth rate of the Chinese economy,variations in population levels,the increase in car ownership, decreases in per kilometre fuel consumption and the development of passenger and goods transport, the authors estimate that by 2015,Chinese demand for gasoline,diesel and kerosene will reach 93.5 million tons,179 million tons and 25 million tons respectively.According to production capacity plans of oil refineries,by that time production of gasoline,diesel and kerosene can reach 89.5 million tons,182 million tons and 26 million tons respectively.Between 2010 and 2015,the Chinese market for refined oil products will change from the current slight shortfall to an approximate balance.However,since the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan and Korea has marked excess capacity,and since these products are of relatively high quality,in the future,competition from Northeast Asia will be strong.In the future,China will play a leading role in determining supply and demand of oil products in Northeast Asia.Chinese strategic reserves will have a stabilizing effect and the progressive liberalization of the Chinese oil products market will promote the establishment of a Northeast Asian petroleum products futures market.