“人口陷阱”与经济发展——基于人口变化趋势的国际比较

Demographic Trap and Economic Development:Theoretical Study,Quantitative Analysis and International Comparison

文章通过对人口分布理论折线与人口拟合线的分析,发现人口拟合线的正负斜率可作为"人口陷阱"的判断标准。外生的人口扰动不等于"人口陷阱",后者才是许多欠发达国家经济增长短期行为的人口诱因。中国的人口分布很不平衡,人口扰动较大,但与美国、加拿大一样,不存在"人口陷阱",未来就业压力趋缓。而印度、安哥拉、阿尔及利亚则存在"人口陷阱"风险。文章认为,中国的经济发展是可持续的,印度经济虽然快速增长,但很可能仅停留在发展的稳态点上。

Based on the theory of population distribution and the fitting line analysis,the authors of the paper found that the negative slope in population distribution fitted line can be regarded as necessary condition of demographic trap.Exogenous population disturbance is not equal to the demographic trap,which is the main reason for short-term behavior of some developing countries'economic growth.Despite it has greater population disturbance,as US and Canada,China has no demographic trap and its employment pressure is coming down.In contrast,India,Algeria,and Angola have the risk of demographic trap.This paper suggests that China's economic development is sustainable,while India with rapid economic growth may stay on the steady-state point of development in future.