中国农村劳动力的变动及剩余状况分析

Analysis on Rural Surplus Labor:State and Trend

文章利用1996和2006年农业普查数据,分析了农村劳动力10年来的变动特征。通过工日折算法、标准结构法对全国和各省份农村剩余劳动力进行了重新估算和比较分析;并结合经济周期波动,剖析了"民工荒"与大量农村剩余劳动力并存的原因。作者认为,只有排除经济周期中高度繁荣和严重萧条时期的短期因素干扰,在国民经济常态运行的长期背景下才能对农村劳动力供求格局变化做出更加符合实际的判断。

This paper summarizes the characteristics of Chinese rural labor,based on data from agriculture census in 1996 and 2006.We re-estimate,compare and analyze China's surplus rural labor by means of labor-hour conversion method and standard structural method.Taking economic cycle fluctuation into account,we also investigate the essential reasons for the coexistence of migrant workers'shortage and agricultural labor's surplus.The research of this paper suggests that only when short-period disturbing factors in prosperous booming or economic depression are excluded could realistic judgments about rural labor supply and demand be made.