应用乘数法估计广州市男性同性恋人群规模

Estimation of the size of male homosexual population in Guangzhou with multiplier method

目的调查估计广州市男性同性恋人群的规模,探讨乘数法应用过程中的影响因素。方法应用乘数法按场所分层调查,对广州市男性同性恋人群的规模进行估计。结果广州市酒吧类、桑拿类和公园、公厕类场所的男性同性恋人群规模,分别为2718人(2427人～3080人)、13486人(12145人～15143人)和8668人(7470人～10332人)。广州市男性同性恋人群总的规模为24872人(22042人～28555人)。结论运用乘数法对男性同性恋人群规模进行估计经济易行,结果可信,但须注意乘数法的适用人群和实施注意事项。

Objective To investigate and estimate the male homosexual population in Guangzhou and analyze the related factors by using multiplier method. Methods The multiplier method and stratified analysis were applied to estimate the size of male homosexual population in Guangzhou. Results The estimates of the size of male homosexual population in bars,bath houses and parks were 2 718 （2 427- 3 080）,13 486（12 145-15 143） and 8 668 （7 470 -10 332） respectively, and the total number of male homosexual population in Guangzhou was 24 872（22 042- 28 555）. Conclusion Application of multiplier method in estimating the size of male homosexual population has been shown to be economic, simple and credible. But attention should be paid to the suitable population and appropriate operation proceeding.