布氏田鼠鼠疫流行周期和动态预报

EPIDEMIC PERIODICITY AND DYNAMIC FORECAST OF PLAGUE OF MI- CROTUS BRANDTI

为研究布氏田鼠鼠疫流行周期,根据内蒙古阿巴嘎旗1970～1996年布氏田鼠鼠疫流行动态资料,利用游程检验得到结果:鼠疫流行与未流行年份有比较明显的周期过程(u=2.25,P<0.025)。结论:鼠疫流行周期为(x±s)=(2.75±0.5)年,未流行周期为(x±s)=(3土1)年。为预报下一个鼠疫流行年份,根据该旗1980～1996年鼠疫动态资料,利用灰色灾变预测,得到模型GM(1,1)(P<0.02)。结论:在1998～2001年期间,动物鼠疫可能流行。

In order to study the epidemic periodicity of plague of Microtus brandti, according to the dynamic epidemic data of them in Abaga Banner, Inner Mongolia During 1970- 1996, the runs testing method was conducted for the law of animal plague in epidemic years and nonepidemic years. It appeared that there might exist some kinds of yearly cycles ( u = 2.25, p<0.025). Conclusion was that the epidemic cycles of plague was (x±s) = (2.75±0.5) year, and the nonepidemic (x ±s) = (3±1) year. The grey calamity model GM( 1,1) was conducted for the next epidemic years using the data of them in 1980 - 1996 (p < 0.02) > It was possible that the animal plague will be epidemic in 1998 - 2001 or so.