摘要
针对设计优化中存在的偶然不确定性和认知不确定性,采用贝叶斯理论,利用验前信息,进行可靠性分析,提出了基于贝叶斯可靠性的设计优化方法,并将其应用到弹翼蒙皮设计中。在仿真中,计算了两种不确定性下的可靠度分布,优化结果达到了可靠性要求,并且计算简单,易于工程实现。
For the aleatory uncertainties and epistemic uncertainties in design optimization, bayesian theory was introduced, and prior information was utilized to analyze reliability. The method of Bayesian reliability based design optimization was suggested and applied in the design of missile wing skin. In the simulation, the method calculated effectively reliability distribution under the two uncertainties, the optimization result achieved the reliability requests, and the process of calculation was simple to actualize in project.
出处
《航空计算技术》
2009年第6期46-49,共4页
Aeronautical Computing Technique
关键词
贝叶斯可靠性
可靠性分析
偶然不确定性
认知不确定性
蒙皮
bayesian reliability, reliability analyses, aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, skin