基于贝叶斯可靠性的设计优化在弹翼蒙皮设计中的应用

Application of Bayesian Reliability Based Design Optimization in the Design of Missile Wing Skin

针对设计优化中存在的偶然不确定性和认知不确定性,采用贝叶斯理论,利用验前信息,进行可靠性分析,提出了基于贝叶斯可靠性的设计优化方法,并将其应用到弹翼蒙皮设计中。在仿真中,计算了两种不确定性下的可靠度分布,优化结果达到了可靠性要求,并且计算简单,易于工程实现。

For the aleatory uncertainties and epistemic uncertainties in design optimization, bayesian theory was introduced, and prior information was utilized to analyze reliability. The method of Bayesian reliability based design optimization was suggested and applied in the design of missile wing skin. In the simulation, the method calculated effectively reliability distribution under the two uncertainties, the optimization result achieved the reliability requests, and the process of calculation was simple to actualize in project.