中国经济中长期增长潜力分析与预测:2008～2020年被引量：42

Analysis and Forecast on the Potential of China's Economic Growth

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摘要本文利用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和Solow增长模型实证分析1970～2007年全要素劳动生产率、资本和劳动力对中国经济增长的贡献,在对未来影响经济增长各个因素的趋势进行分析的基础上,对中国未来的经济增长进行了分段预测和情景分析。按照我们的判断,在未来直到2020年,中国经济的年均增长速度会明显低于改革开放30年以来的平均增长速度,而且会出现缓慢下降的趋势。在比较乐观的假设基础上,2008～2020年平均增长速度为7%～8%,在较差的情况下,只能达到5%～6%。 Based on Cobb-Douglas production function we estimate the contribution of the total factor productivity （TFP）, the capital and the labor to the China ＇s economic growth from 1970-2007. A Solow growth model is applied to forecast the potential growth of the China＇s GDP until 2020. Combined the hypothesis on the potential development of the TFP and the proportion of the investment to the GDP, we forecast the growth rate of the China＇s economic growth. Scenario analysis is conducted. During 2008-2020, the average GDP growth rate will be lower than that of 1978-2007, and the growth rate will gradually decrease as the time being.

作者张延群娄峰

机构地区中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第12期137-145,共9页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

关键词 Solow增长模型中国经济增长潜力预测 Solow Growth Model Potential Growth of China＇s Economy Forecast

分类号 F015 [经济管理—政治经济学]

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