信贷结构变动对产业结构变动的作用机制分析

Analysis of the Affecting Mechanism of the Credit Structure on the Industry Structure

本文运用自回归分布滞后模型研究了信贷结构变动对产业结构变动的作用机制,得出三点结论:一是产业产值结构变动率具有趋势性,前期的产值结构变动率对当期的产值结构变动率具有正面影响,且时间间隔越短,影响越大;二是前期的信贷结构变动率会给当期的产值结构变动率带来正面影响,计量模型显示,某产业前期的信贷占比增长率每增加1%,则该产业当期在GDP中所占比例的增长率会增加0.14%;三是信贷投入对产业产值的影响具有一定的滞后性,即当期的信贷增长并不能全部转化为当期产值的增加。

This paper applies autoregressive distributed lag （ADL） model to analyzes the affecting mechanism of the credit structure on the industry structure, and we reach conclusions as following： First, the fluctuation ratio of industry structure has the characteristics of tendency, which means that earlier fluctuation ratio has positive effect on current value, and the impact is more obvious when the interval period is shorter. Second, earlier fluctuation ratio of credit structure has positive effect on the current fluctuation ratio of industry structure. As it is shown in the model, when the growth rate of the loan ratio of some industry raises 1%, the growth rate of the output ratio of this industry will grow 0.14%. Third, the affecting mechanism of credit on industry output is lagged, which means that the current increase of credit will not be transferred into the output all at once.