第4代白背飞虱与第5代褐飞虱发生程度及发生期预测模型

Occurrence of 4th Generation White-backed Plant-hopper and 5^(th) Generation Brown Plant-hopper and the Occurrence Prediction Model

对余庆县1993-2008年稻飞虱测报资料筛选分析,建立了第4代白背飞虱发生程度、低龄若虫盛发期的预测模型(^y=-7.764 01+0.001 25x1+0.001 26x2+0.113 08x3±Sy/12=1.181 8,^y=9.958 0+1.042 0x±Sy/x=1.284 8)和第5代褐飞虱发生程度、低龄若虫盛发期的预测模型(^y=1.178 3+0.001 5x1+0.001 4x2+0.002 0x3±Sy/12=0.587 0,^y=7.936 5+1.634 9x±Sy/x=2.807 1)。利用该回归模型可提前10~15 d对其发生程度和低龄若虫盛发期进行预测预报,且结果较为准确。

Occurrence of 4^th generation, young age larvae broadcasting model of whit-back planthopper, Occurrence of 5^th generation, young age larvae broadcasting model of brown plant-hopper were established based on the selection and analysis of broadcasting data of rice plant-hopper in Yuqing county from 1993 to 2008. The regression model could precisely predict and broadcast the occurrence and young larva emerging time 10-15 days before.