人口转变类型对人口年龄结构的影响——兼论我国人口老龄化的原因

The Impact of the Demographic Transition Patterns on Population Age Structure——On the Reasons for Chinese Aging Problem

根据人口转变时间长短、人口增长率落差两项指标,将人口转变划分为平稳型和非平稳型两类,揭示出人口转变类型与人口乘数的关系。类型效应和乘数效应共同决定了人口转变中老龄人口乘数大小,从人口学的角度解释了我国计划生育政策在人口数量控制和人口年龄结构迅速老龄化中所起的作用。针对我国人口迅速老龄化提出了相应的政策措施。

According to time and gap of the population growth rate, there are two kinds of demographic transition patterns-smooth and unsmooth, which discloses the relationship between demographic transition patterns and population multiplier. Both pattern and multiplier effects decide elderly transitional multiplier. This paper explains the role of family planning policy in our country＇ s population control and rapid aging of population structure from demographic standpoint, and puts forward corresponding polices and measures provide.