基础设施投资对中国经济增长贡献的实证研究：1953～2007

Empirical Study on the Contribution of Investment in Chinese Infrastructure to Its Economic Growth——Based on Data During 1953-2007

中国基础设施资本产出弹性估算存在差异,其主要原因是利用永续盘存法估算基础设施资本存量和非基础设施资本存量存在差别。本文以1952年为估算基期,并对基础设施资本和非基础设施资本采用不同的折旧率进行估算,较好地保证数据的合理性。实证结果表明我国基础设施资本的产出弹性为0.238377,基础设施资本对GDP的贡献度为32.32%,即基础设施资本每增加1元,GDP增加0.3232元。

There is discrepancy in the estimation of the because of the difference in the estimation of infrastructure elasticity of capital output of Chinese Infrastructure primarily capital stock and non-infrastructure capital stock with perpetual inventory method. This paper takes 1952 as base period and estimates infrastructure and non-infrastructure capital by adopting different depreciation rates so as to guarantee the rationality of the data. Empirical results indicate that the elasticity of capital output of Chinese Infrastructure is 0. 238377, that the contribution degree of infrastructure capital to GDP is 32.32%, i.e. with infrastructure capital increasing 1 yuan, GDP will increase 0. 3232 yuan.