川东北地区大春季农业气候资源的年代际变化特征分析

Characteristic Analysis on the Annual Variation of Agro-meteorological Climate Resource in Spring Growing Season in Northeast Sichuan

以1961—2008年川东北地区21个气象站的气象资料为基础，对大春生长季农业气候资源要素进行统计分析，并应用Mann—Kendall方法对各资源要素的突变性进行了检测。结果表明，≥10℃初日呈提前趋势；≥20℃终日、≥22℃终日均呈推迟趋势；界限温度内积温随年际增加，降水随年际变化不大，日照时数随年际减少；各农业气候资源除日照外均没有发生较明显突变，86％的地区的日照时数在1980年左右发生了减少型突变。这些变化必将影响到农业生产的布局和结构，为更加合理利用农业气候资源和应对气候变化提供科学依据。

Based on the meteorological data of 21 counties in the Northeast of Sichuan province from 1961 to 2008, factors concerning the Agro - meteorological climate resource in spring growing season was statistically analyzed. Some abrupt changes of every resources factor have been detected by using Mann - Kendall test method. The result shows that the first day of ≥10℃ appears earlier than nomal whereas the last day of ≥20℃ and ≥22℃ comes late. Within the limit temperatures, accumulated temperature rose, precipitation changed slowly and sunshine time decreased and the entire agro - meteorological climate resources did not show abrupt change except the sunshine time. The sunshine time of nearly 86% area experienced an abrupt change of decrease. All these changes will affect the layout and structure of agricultural production and crop planting. The findings in this study can be helpful for making a better use of the local agro - meteorological climate resource.