基于数据推理和模式识别的财务困境预警模型

Pre-warning Model of Financial Distress Based on Calculus Derivation and Pattern Recognition

通过对比研究,指出了基于统计分析方法的传统财务困境预警模型的缺陷,分析了基于数据演算推理和模式识别的新兴财务困境预警模型的特点。对多个有代表性模型特点的分析表明,新兴的财务困境模型具有容错能力、动态适应性、人工智能和解释能力等特点,更适合目前公司错综复杂的财务状况。该文在分析结果的基础上,提出了财务困境预警问题未来的研究方向。

By contrastive study, the inherent defects of the traditional financial distress pre-warning （FDPW） models based on the traditional statistic analysis method are indicated. The characteristics of the novel models based on calculus derivation and pattern recognition developed recently are analyzed. The results from the analysis on the characteristics of several representative FRPW models show that the novel FDPW models own such characteristics as high fault tolerance ability, dynamic adaptability, artificial intelligence and explanation ability and are more suitable for the complicated financial evolution in modern companies. The future directions about the FRPW are also proposed here.