沈阳至铁岭城际快速轨道交通客流预测研究

Study of Prediction of Traffic Capacity of Municipal High-Speed Trackway of Shenyang to Tieling

基于对沈阳至铁岭城际快速轨道交通功能定位与客流特征分析,提出了将城际快速轨道交通作为区域客流通道进行研究的基本思想,以及四阶段客流预测的技术路线。通过客流分配模型,对沈阳至铁岭城际快速轨道交通进行了客流预测,获得线路全日客运量、平均运距和高峰小时最大断面客流量等客流预测指标。

Based on analysis of traffic position of Shenyang -Tieling municipal high -speed trackway and of feature for passenger capacity, the paper poses a basic thinking which municipal high - speed traekway traffic as area passenger capacity channel;Technical route of passenger capacity predicting at four phases. By model for distri- bution of passenger capacity, it makes prediction of passenger capacity for Shenyang - Tieling municipal high - speed trackway traffic, has acquired capacity of passenger transport in all the day and predictive indexes of passenger capacity of average transport distance and peak hours maximum section.