国际能源发展趋势分析

Study on the Trend of International Energy Development

本文回顾了国际能源供需的历史,其宏观特点表现为:消费总量不断增加,发展中国家增长速率明显高于发达国家;消费结构趋向优质化;化石能源储备较丰富,地区储备差异促进能源贸易;各国能源利用效率差距较大。国际能源发展存在多元化、环保化、高效化、全球化的特征。文章分析了国际能源的发展趋势。世界能源消费总量将持续增长,中国与印度增长最快;能源结构短期变化不大,长期由化石能源向可再生能源、新能源转换;优质、高效、洁净能源长期看好;能源科技发展至关重要;节能倍受重视。

The paper studies the supply-demand history of international energy and generalizes its macro features. The total energy consumption is increasing and the increasing rates in developing countries are obviously higher than the ones in developed countries. The structure of international energy consumption tends to be optimized. Fossil energy reserves are rich and the differences of regional reserves promote energy trade. But the energy use efficiency in countries differs widely. The development of international energy is featured by diversification, environmental protection, high efficiency and globalization. It also analyses the trend of international energy development. The total energy consumption in the world will continuously increase, and the increasing rates of energy consumption in China and India are the highest. In the short term, the energy structure will not change, but in the long term, it will be turned from fossil energy into renewable energy and new energy. Energy with the features of high-quality, high efficiency and cleanness has the long-term advantage. The development of energy technology will play a vital role and energy-saving will attract more attention.