中国大陆地区对外贸易差异的演变、成因与收敛路径

Evolution,Cause and Convergence Path of Foreign Trade Difference in Chinese Mainland

根据采用因子分忻法进行的综合评价结果表明，中国大陆地区对外贸易水平呈现明显的非均衡发展态势。以变异系数度量的对外贸易总量差异表明，1985～2006年间，地带间外贸总量差异呈逐步增大的态势，地带内部外贸总量差异呈趋于收敛的态势。以制成品进出口占全国比重度量的对外贸易结构表明，四大地带中，东部始终占据全国主导地位且占比逐年上升。在地区对外贸易差异的形成过程中，对外开放政策、外商直接投资、人力资本、经济性基础设施、国内投资和地理区位等因素起到了决定性作用。以对数单位模型进行的实证检验表明，加大道路交通建设、提高中央与地方的分权水平、扩大投资规模、改善人力资本状况、提升通讯水平和加强省际外贸合作，是促进地区对外贸易向均衡方向发展的有效路径。

The synthetic evaluation based on the exploratory factor analysis indicated that the foreign trade development in Chinese mainland presents the unbalanced situation： eastern area heads the list and northeastern, midwest areas decreases gradually. During 1985 -2006, the difference of foreign trade quantity between four major regions increases step by step and the difference in internal regions tends restraining. In finished-product trade, eastern area occupies the national dominant position all the time and the ration rises year by year. In the forming process of foreign trade difference, factors such as open policy, foreign direct investment, human capital, economic infrastructure, domestic investment and geographical position play the decisive role. And the demonstration test which is carried on by the Log Unit Model indicates that expanding the road traffic construction, enhancing the decentralization level between central government and the local government, improving investment scale, increasing human capital condition, promoting communication level and strengthening the inter-provincial foreign trade cooperation, are the efficient paths to guide regional foreign trade development in the balanced direction.