天津臭氧浓度与气象因素的相关性及其预测方法

Analysis and prediction of surface ozone concentration and related meteorological factors in summer in Tianjin

气象因素在影响夏季臭氧浓度水平和变化特征方面扮演着重要作用。通过对2008年夏季天津地面臭氧体积浓度和气象因素的相关分析,揭示高浓度臭氧发生时的典型气象特征,并初步建立了预测地面臭氧浓度的气象学方法。结果表明:影响臭氧浓度的主要气象因素是气温、相对湿度和风速、风向,当14时气温大于30℃,相对湿度低于60%,风向为偏西或偏南时,高浓度臭氧的发生概率较高。采用14时气温、相对湿度和风速等气象参数拟合臭氧体积浓度,效果良好。

Meteorological factors played an important role in ozone concentrations and their temporal variation characteristics. Based on the observational data of ground 03 and meteorological factors in the urban area of Tianjin in summer, 2008. Typical meteorological factors with high ozone concentration were revealed, and a simple statistical equation was fitted to forecast ground-level O3 concentration. The results showed that main meteorological factors were temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. All the factors, such as high temperature, low relative humidity and westerly or southerly, led to high ozone concentration. With temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity at 14：00, a simple statistical function was fitted, which allowed the maximum 8 hours ozone concentration be forecasted to some extent.