我国经常账户失衡的内外冲击因素——基于BQ分解的实证研究

Internal and External Factors of China's Current Account Imbalance:An Empirical Study Based On BQ Decomposition

为了研究自1990年代初期以来我国经常账户出现持续顺差的内外部原因,本文利用Blanchard和Quah提出的对冲击进行长期约束的冲击分解方法,分析了内部冲击和外部冲击对我国经常账户失衡的"冲击-传导"机制。分析结论表明:我国经常账户失衡主要是由我国内部冲击因素导致的,并且,在样本期内,我国经常账户的波动也可以由其内部冲击分量来模拟。依据这些结论,本文提出了应对我国经常账户失衡的政策建议。

In order to study the internal and external reasons of the incessant current account surplns in China since the early 1990＇ s, this paper follows Blanchard ＆ Quah＇ s way to learn the mechanism of shocks to China＇ s current account imbalance. We get the conclusion that internal shocks should be mainly responsible for the imbalance, and what＇ s more, it can simulate the current account fluctuation during the sample time. Based on these findings, the paper also puts forward some policy recommendations accordingly.