我国第三产业比重是否应该逐年上升?

Whether the Proportion of Tertiary Industry in GDP Should Go Up Every Year in China?

从长期看,第三产业比重应呈上升趋势。但是,某一时期(比如5年或更长一点)第三产业比重回落也是可能的。第三产业比重与最终使用结构有很大关系,从一定意义上讲,一个国家的最终使用结构决定着它的第三产业比重,这一关系可以借助投入产出模型进行量化。我国的最终使用结构比较特殊,一定程度地制约了我国第三产业比重的上升。

The proportion of tertiary industry in GDP is expected to go up over a long term, however, it also could go down during a certain period （for example, 5 years or longer）. The proportion of tertiary, industry in GDP has a close relationship with the composition of final uses, and is determined by the latter in a sense. This relationship could be quantified by means of the input-output model. Since the composition of final uses in China is relatively special, thus it constrains the increase of the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP to some extent.