农村劳动力转移影响因素分析:29个省市的经验数据

Impact Factors Analysis on Rural Labor Migration:29 Cities and Provinces′ Empirical Data

在分析和评价传统理论和已有文献的基础上,突破单一的城乡收入差距影响农村劳动力转移的传统思维,构建出农村劳动力转移不仅受迁入地非农收入的实际效用因素的影响,而且受迁移成本变动因素影响的理论模型;并且根据全国29个省市1995—2006年的面板数据,经过单位根检验和协整关系检验,利用回归模型,估计分析了非农收入的实际效用因素?包括城乡收入差距、非农产业生产总值比率?和非农收入成本因素?包括城乡消费支出比率、城镇失业率?对农村劳动力转移的影响度。估计结果显示,城乡收入差距、非农产业生产总值比率与农村劳动力转移正相关,城乡消费支出比率、城镇失业率分别作为农村劳动力转移的直接价格成本和就业风险成本与农村劳动力转移呈负相关关系,从而进一步明确了实际收入变动因素、转移就业的机遇因素、转移就业的风险因素对农村劳动力转移的影响程度。由理论构建和实证分析可知,要进一步促进我国农村劳动力向城镇的合理转移,必须从两个方面着手:一是提高非农收入的实际效用,二是降低非农收入的成本率。

Based on the theoretical analysis and existing literatures about rural labor migration, and breaking through the traditional thinking pattern of single urban -rural income gap affecting rural labor migration, the thesis draws the conclusion that not only the urban-rural income gap but also the cost affects rural labor migration. Moreover, according to the whole country＇ data between 1995 and 2006, through unit root test and co-integration test, and using regression model, the thesis makes an estimation on the impact of the urban-rural income gap and the cost on the rural labor inflow. Estimates show that the urban-rural income gap and the non-agricultural industrial output promote the rural labor migration, and that the cost obstructs the rural labor migration, thus clarifying the impact degree of urban-rural income gap and cost changes. In view of the roles of all the factors on rural laborinflow, and in order to further promote rural labor migration, we must proceed from two aspects： increasing the non-agricultural income＇s marginal utility and reducing the non-agricultural income＇ s cost.