2007年辽宁省极端降雪事件平均再现间隔估算

Average Recurrence Interval Estimation of Extreme Blizzard Event over Liaoning Province in 2007

利用沈阳市60年极端降雪资料和辽宁省57年最大平均降雪资料，采用耿贝尔和弗雷歇极值分布方法对2007年3月3～5日特大暴雪进行极值估算。结果表明，这场暴雪沈阳的平均再现间隔为200年左右，辽宁省的平均再现间隔为200年以上。

Gumbel and Frechet extremum estimation method was used to estimate the average recurrence interval of extreme blizzard from March 3 to 5,2007 with extreme snow precipitation data of Shenyang in the recent 60 years and maximum average snow precipitation data of Liaoning in the recent 57 years. The results showed that the average recurrence interval of this blizzard in Shenyang was about 200 years and the average recurrence interval in Liaoning was over 200 years.