我国出口贸易、经济增长与碳排放关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship of Export Trade,Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions

首先根据碳排放因素分解法计算出我国1980-2007年的碳排放量,然后实证分析了出口贸易、经济增长与碳排放量之间的动态关系。结论显示:3个变量间存在长期协整关系;出口贸易是碳排放和经济增长的Granger原因,而经济增长不是碳排放的Granger原因;碳排放对出口贸易的响应强度不断增强,至第5期达到最大值,随后不断减少,直至达到最小值;碳排放对经济增长的响应强度从第2期开始由负变正,且不断增强,至第8期达到最大值,而后减少。鉴于此,提出了若干政策建议。

In this paper, the Chinese Carbon emissions of 1980-2007 are calculated by the decomposition analysis, and then the dynamic relationship between export trade, economic growth and Carbon emissions is studied. The conclusions are： Three variables have long-term cointegration relationship; Export trade is the Granger cause of Carbon emissions and economic growth, but economic growth is not the Granger cause of Carbon emissions; The responding intensity of Carbon emissions to export trade is growing and achieves the maximum in Phase 5, and then decreases until it reaches the minimum; The responding intensity of Carbon emissions to economic growth is positive from Phase 2 with the growing momentum and achieves the maximum at the 8th phase, and then reduces. In view of this, a number of policy recommendations are made.