公路客运安全分析与车辆制动性能建模

Safety analysis of highway passenger transport and modeling of vehicle brake performances

为了准确评价中国公路客运安全状况,研究了长途客车交通事故现状,利用反力式滚筒制动试验台对长途客运车辆制动性能进行检测,采用大样本数据采集、多变量数据分析及数学建模等技术手段,分析了典型长途大客车和轻型客车各项制动性能分布,同时给出车辆多项制动性能的最优拟合分布及分布参数的最优估计值,并建立了相应的制动性能统计模型。分析结果表明:中国公路客运万车死亡率和亿车公里死亡率分别为26.828人.万车-1与6.555人.(亿车.km)-1,事故率仍然偏高;长途大客车和轻型客车各项制动性能均服从Weibull分布;统计模型计算结果与样本实测结果的相对误差均未超过2.378%,因此,所建模型计算结果准确可靠。

To accurately evaluate the safety situation of highway passenger transport in China, the present condition of traffic accidents caused by long-distance passenger vehicles was reviewed, and the brake performances of long-distance passenger vehicles were detected by reaction type roller brake tester. Based on the technical methods, such as large sample data collecting, multivariable data analyzing and mathematical modeling, the brake performance distributions of these vehicles were analyzed, the optimum fitting distributions and optimum distributive parameter estimations of several brake performances were obtained, and the relevant statistical models of the brake performances were established. Analysis result shows that highway passenger transport mortality per 10 thousand vehicles is 26. 828, and the mortality per 100 million vehicle-kilometers is 6. 555, so the accident rate in China is still high. The brake performances of long-distance passenger vehicles obey Weibull distribution, the relative errors between statistical model volues and detecting results are all less than 2. 378%, so the models are accurate and reliable. 8 tabs, 8 refs.