基于CNS定位误差的侧向碰撞风险模型

Lateral collision risk model based on CNS position error

为了有效地确定航路安全间隔与评估碰撞风险,研究了基于通信、导航、监视(CNS)定位误差的侧向碰撞风险问题。运用多维随机变量协方差矩阵,给出了CNS性能环境下侧向定位误差分布函数,建立了给定间隔下基于CNS定位误差的侧向碰撞风险模型,并对侧向碰撞风险进行了评估计算。计算结果表明:某航路侧向碰撞风险为4.8×10-13,在安全目标水平5.0×10-9之内,因此,该航路在现有的CNS性能环境下满足安全目标水平要求。

In order to confirm the safe separation of routes and evaluate the collision risk effectively, the lateral collision risk based on CNS（communication, navigation and surveillance） position error was studied. The multi-dimensional random variable covariance matrix was applied to gain the distribution function of the lateral position error under CNS environment, then the lateral collision risk model under CNS position error was established, and an example was calculated. Analysis result shows that the lateral collision risk of studied route is 4.8 × 10^-13, which is in the safety target level of 5.0 × 10^-9 , so the route under existing CNS environment is safe. 2 figs, 12 refs.