福建省卫生人力及床位预测方法探讨

Forecasting Methods of Medical Human and Bed Resources in Fujian Province

目的探讨四种预测福建省卫生人力及床位的方法,比较各自优缺点。方法应用趋势外推法、人力人口比值法、医院规划模式法和灰色动态模型预测法4种方法预测卫生人力及床位情况并对结果进行比较。结果预测2005年的卫生人力及床位时,4种方法所得结果的相对误差分别为:2.53%,0.45%,0.48%,1.40%;8.54%,1.51%,0.45%,0.35%。结论在对福建省床位进行预测时,灰色动态模型预测法最优;在对卫生人力进行预测时,人力人口比值法最优。政府在确定合理科学的卫生人力和床位时,应根据实际情况,选择合理的预测方法。

Objective To investigate four forecasting methods of medical human and bed resources in Fujian and compare their advantages and disadvantages. Methods The medical human and bed resources were predicted by trend extrapolation, human population ratio method, the hospital planning model law and the gray dynamic model prediction re spectively, and the results were compared. Results By predicting medical human and bed resources in 2005, the relative error of the results obtained by four methods were 2. 53%, 0. 45%, 0. 48%, 1. 4004 and 8.54%, 1.51%, 0. 45%, 0. 35%. Conclusion In the medical bed resource prediction, the gray dynamic model prediction is optimal; in the medical human resource prediction, human population ratio method is optimal. The government should choose the right prediction method to determine reasonable medical human and bed resources.