对外贸易、FDI对就业影响的实证分析——以湖南省为例

An Empirical Study on the Employment Effect of Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investment——Taking Hunan Province as An Example

运用现代计量经济学方法,采用协整分析技术和误差修正模型,利用湖南省1987~2007年数据实证检验了对外贸易、FDI对就业产生的不同影响。研究发现出口、进口和FDI与就业之间存在长期稳定的关系,其中出口和FDI对就业产生正向作用,而进口对就业则产生负面效应,但总体来说其影响较小。湖南省应加大对外开放规模,提升产品质量,优化投资环境,使FDI向第三产业倾斜。同时利用建设＂两型社会＂的契机,刺激省内经济发展,从而创造更多的就业机会。

Using of modem econometric methods, this paper studies the employment influence of import and export trade and FDI by means of co - integration and error correction model on the basis of data from 1987 to 2007 in Hunan Province. The results show that there existed co - integration relationship between export, import, FDI and employment. The exports and FDI have a significantly positive effect on employment, while the effects of imports on employment show significantly negative effect. Hence, Hunan Province should increase the size of the opening to the outside world, improve product quality, optimize the investment environment, and make FDI tilt to the tertiary industry＇. At the same time, the Hunan Province should take advantage of building of the ＂ two - oriented society＂ to stimulate the economic development of the province, thereby creating more employment opportunities.