基于马尔可夫模型的天津海域污染治理投资策略研究

Study on Investment Strategy of Pollution Prevention for Tianjin Sea Area Based on Markov Model

以天津约3 000 km2的海域环境质量为研究对象,运用马尔可夫法对天津海域2003-2007年的水质数据建立不同类别水质的海域转移概率模型,并引入污水排放量和水污染治理投资两个变量,采用多元回归分析法拟合转移概率同污水排放量和水污染治理投资之间的函数关系,研究为达到不同的污染治理目标而付出的污染治理投资,为天津海域环境治理投资决策提供了一定的参考意见。

The study focuses on environmental quality of Tianjin sea area which is about 3000 km^2. Markov model is used to build a model which describes the transfer probability of different levels of water qualities based on data from 2003 to 2007 of Tianjin sea area. Discharge amount of sewage and investment of water pollution prevention are used as two variables to study the function with transfer probability and to do some research on the amount of investment of water pollution prevention for different aims of pollution prevention, in order to provide reference for decision-making of pollution prevention for Tianjin sea area.