年最大洪峰流量的P-Ⅲ型分布拟蒙特卡罗随机模拟研究

Study on stochastic simulation annual maximum peak discharge of P-Ⅲ distribution based on the Quasi-Monte Carlo Method

随机模拟水文序列需要大量的随机数,而且利用传统的伪随机数模拟结果存在统计性质不好等缺陷。采用拟蒙特卡罗方法生成的拟随机数序列,模拟得到的年最大洪峰流量序列的统计性质较好,并且误差随着模拟样本长度的增加收敛很快。可以采用基于拟蒙特卡罗的随机模拟技术来得到所需样本长度的年最大洪峰流量资料。

Stochastic simulation hydrology series needs a lot of random numbers.And there are some defects in simulation results such as bad statistical properties,by using traditional pseudo random numbers.But the statistical properties of annual maximum peak discharge series are good by using Quasi-Monte Carlo Method（Q-MCM） to product quasi pseudo random number series,and which has advantage of quick error convergence velocity with increasing sample length.Thereby,we can use Q-MCM-based stochastic simulation method to product annual maximum peak discharge series,the sample length of which is what we need.