基于逐步回归法探讨城市会展业对旅游业的影响——以上海浦东新区为例

Study on the Influence of the Urban MICE Industry on Tourism Industry by Using the Stepwise Regressive Method——As a Example for Pudong New Area

会展业与旅游业作为城市经济的新增长点,近年来得到快速发展。但是关于会展业与旅游业之间的真实关系,尤其是从实证方面研究会展业对旅游业影响的理论成果仍然非常欠缺。文章借助Eviews5.0和2007Excel软件,运用计量经济学经典多元回归模型,以上海浦东新区为例,深入探讨了城市会展业对旅游业影响的具体表现和程度。回归结果得到:城市会展业发展对旅游业经营收入的解释程度达到58.85%,其中会展要素中的展览会展出面积与会议举办次数,对旅游业发展的影响效果显著。在此基础上,对产生这一结论的原因做了一定程度的解释与评析,并提出相关对策。

MICE and tourism industry have been rapidly developing for recent years as a new urban economic growth. But the study about the real relations between MICE and tourism industry, especial ly on the impact from MICE industry to tourismindustry is still very lac- king. The paper explores the manifestation and degree of the impact from MICE industry to tour ism industry, as a example of Pudong New District, using of classical econometric model of multiple regression, through the software EviewsS. 0 and 2007 Excel . The regression re- sult is that the development of urbantoufism industry was interpretation of the extent of 58.85% by MICE industry. It is asignifieant that the development of the tourism industry will be influenced when the exhibition area and the frequency of meeting had been increased or decreased. On this basis, the ＂reasons for this conclusion have been done a certain degree of interpretation and analysis, and countermeasures are proposed.