我国第三产业发展与城镇化建设的实证研究

面对自2008年金融危机造成的就业压力,是我们当前要解决的核心问题。但要解决如此之众人数的就业问题,所能作出选择的余地实际上已经非常有限,其主要就落在了城镇化建设与第三产业的发展上。城镇化水平是衡量我国地区经济社会发展水平的重要标志,是构建科学合理的区域格局的重要推动力量。而加快农村城镇化、提高我国城镇化水平必须走发展非农产业即第三产业服务业的道路。文章运用1978～2008年的数据,通过协整分析与格兰杰因果检验方法,从实证角度研究了中国城镇化和第三产业发展之间的动态相关性以及因果关系。

The level of urbanization is the important symbol to weigh the social level of development of our country＇s area economic and the emphasis impelling force to construct science and reasonable distribution.Speeding up the countryside＇s urbanization,and raising the level of our country＇s urbanization have to develop non-agricultural production which is the tertiary industry（service industry）.Using the date from 1978to 2008 and the methods of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test,the article studies the dynamic relevance and causal relation between the urbanization of china and the development of tertiary industry.