江西能源结构与能源效率实证研究

The Verifying Research for Jiangxi Energy Structure and Energy Efficiency

节约能源是中国基本国策,省委、省政府对节能工作高度重视,明确提出"十一五"末单位GDP能耗下20%的奋斗目标。随着江西省工业化、江西城市化进程的进一步加快,国民经济增长对能源的依赖程度逐步增强。经济的发展离不开能源,但能源高消费也将给社会带来巨大的负面影响。因此,优化能源结构、提高能源利用效率,对促进国民经济向资源节约型社会转变具有十分重要的意义。那么优化能源结构到底在多大程度上影响到能源效率?文章根据1985-2008年江西能源消费数据,建立能源效率与能源消费结构的计量模型,定量分析煤品、油品、电力等能源结构对能源效率的影响,并根据模型结果,从能源消费结构的角度提出优化我省能源结构和提高能源效率的政策建议。

Energy conservation is a fundamental state policy, to which the government and party committee of Jiangxi province attach great importance and clearly point out its objective is that at the end of the 1 lth five-year plan, the energy consumption of each enterprise and institute should decrease by 20% in GDP. With the further development of provincial urbanization and industrialization, national economic growth depends on energy increasingly. Economy can＇ t be improved without energy, but high consumption of energy brings great negative influence to society. Therefore, the optimization of energy structure and improvement of energy efficiency play a very significant role in the ^-ansformation of national economy to society. But to what extent does optimizing energy structure affect energy efficiency？ To answer this question, this paper built an econometric model for energy efficiency and consumption structure according to energy consumption figures in Jiangxi province from 1985 to 2008, quantitatively analyzing the influence of energy categories, such as coal, oil and electricity on energy efficiency, and on the basis of the results of model research, it proposed some policies and suggestions to optimize the provincial energy structure and enhance the provincial energy efficiency in terms of energy consumption structure.