中国区域经济差异与收敛

The Economic Disparity between Different Regions of China and Its Reduction—An Analysis from the Geographical Perspective

直接的统计数据显示,中国不存在全域性的σ-收敛,全域性的β-绝对收敛趋势也不明显,但却存在着东部与中部两大"俱乐部"收敛的趋势,而西部地带的收敛特征并不显著。Theil指数的分解表明,σ-收敛指数的增大与波动主要是由区域间差异的增大与波动主导的,东、中、西内部省区的差异在缩小。空间计量模型进一步揭示了统计数据无法直接显现的结果:一方面,将省区间的关联效应纳入模型后发现,中国在改革开放的30年里存在着在全域范围内的β-绝对收敛特征。另一方面,1990年前后呈现出两种不同的收敛特征:1990年前,不仅全国范围内的β-绝对收敛特征显著,而且存在着东部与中西部两大收敛"俱乐部";1990年后,全国范围内的β-绝对收敛已不复存在,过去的两大收敛"俱乐部"也分化成了东、中、西三大收敛"俱乐部"。

The statistics show that China does not have a universal-reduction and the degree of a universal-reduction is also very weak. There has been a reduction in economic disparity between the eastern and central/western regions; however,this reduction was not statistically significant within the western regions. The Theil Index shows that the rise and fluctuation in the index of-reduction was largely the result of the widening of inter-regional disparity,while intra-regional disparity in the eastern and central/western regions was somewhat reduced. The spatial measurement model further revealed some tendencies that our data failed to predict. By incorporating the inter-provincial correlation effects into the spatial measurement model,we found that the-reduction at the national level did see a reduction,but this reduction assumed different patterns. Prior to 1990,the national-reduction was statistically significant and was quite significant in both the eastern and central/western regions. After 1990,the national-reduction disappeared and the reduction that had traditionally occurred in the eastern and central/western parts of China was now taking place in the eastern,central and western parts of China.