摘要
The causal correlation or linkage between the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) intensity and rise/fall of Chinese dynasties recently proposed by high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions is examined in detail. Aside from many exceptions to the correlation, both instrumental and historical climate records show strong spatial variations of rainfall on annual-to-decadal scales over eastern China. The relationship between rainfall and EAM intensity also exhibits regional disparity. These observations suggest: (1) Tak-ing paleo-proxy records from a single locality in eastern China to imply changes in drought/wetness as to affect the cultural and political history of China is fraught with uncertainty. (2) On annual-to-decadal scales, the thesis that δ18O in speleothems can be used as a proxy for the EAM strength lacks empirical underpinnings.
The causal correlation or linkage between the East Asian Monsoon （EAM） intensity and rise/fall of Chinese dynasties recently proposed by high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions is examined in detail. Aside from many exceptions to the correlation, both instrumental and historical climate records show strong spatial variations of rainfall on annual-to-decadal scales over eastern China. The relationship between rainfall and EAM intensity also exhibits regional disparity. These observations suggest： （1） Taking paleo-proxy records from a single locality in eastern China to imply changes in drought/wetness as to affect the cultural and political history of China is fraught with uncertainty. （2） On annual-to-decadal scales, the thesis that δ^18O in speleothems can be used as a proxy for the EAM strength lacks empirical underpinnings.
作者
ZHANG DeEr1, LI Hong-Chun2,3, KU Teh-Lung2,4 & LU LongHua5 1 National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
2 Department of Earth Sciences & Research Center of Ocean Environment and Technology, Cheng-Kung University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan, China
3 School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University of China, Chongqing 400715, China
4 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
5 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
基金
supported by the Science Council of Taiwan (NSC 97-2628-M-006-014)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40672202 and 40599424)
