基于时序模型的火工品贮存可靠性分析方法

Storage Reliability Analysis of Explosive Initiator Using Time Series Model

火工品具有寿命长且可靠性高的特点,为了提高其贮存可靠性分析的精确性,研究了火工品及其贮存可靠性的特点,利用感度试验数据,给出了基于时序模型的火工品贮存可靠性分析方法。该方法利用升降法试验数据给出了感度分布参数的极大似然估计,并结合先验信息给出了刻度参数的收缩估计。数值模拟结果表明,在一定条件下,收缩估计具有更优的统计性质。采用时序模型来描述感度分布参数随贮存时间的变化趋势;结合分布参数的估计值给出了模型参数的最小二乘估计;然后利用该模型对分布参数进行外推。结合信仰推断方法,给出了火工品贮存可靠度置信下限。数值算例表明该方法合理、可行,可用于高可靠性火工品的贮存可靠性分析。

The explosive initiator is one kind of sensitivity products with long life and high reliability.To improve precision of storage reliability analysis,the method of storage reliability analysis for explosive initiator was proposed using the time series model based on the character of pyrotechnics and its storage reliability and its sensitivity test data.In the method,the maximum likelihood estimations of sensitivity distribution parameter were obtained from the up-down test data,and the shrinkage estimation for scale parameter was obtained by combining the sample information with prior information.The simulated result shows that the shrinkage estimation is better under certain conditions.The time series models were used to describe the relation between the sensitivity distribution parameters and storage time.And the models were estimated by least square method with the distribution parameters estimations.Then the distribution parameters were predicted based on the models. The confidence interval of storage reliability was obtained with fiducial inference.The illustrative example shows that the method is reasonable and available for storage reliability analysis of the explosive initiator with high reliability.