水资源承载力动态变化分析

On the dynamic change of the carrying capacity of water resources

水资源承载力是一个国家或地区持续发展过程中各种资源承载力的重要组成部分,是决定人类经济社会发展速度和规模的重要因素。应用模糊综合评价方法对山西全省2000—2006年水资源承载力的动态变化进行了分析评价。结果表明山西省水资源开发利用总体上已达到相当高的规模,接近其开发容量,因此迫切需要实施全面节水战略,以保证全省社会经济的可持续发展。

This paper is concerned with the changes of water resources carrying capacity in Shanxi in the period from 2000 to 2006. The paper also intends to present a assessment method of water resources carrying capacity based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by selecting six indexes, including average utilizable water resources per capital, water supply module, water demand module, irrigationoriented water consumption, GDP module and per capita water supply. As is known, water resource potential is closely linked with the province＇s development. It serves as the basis for local eco-environment construction and its economic development. The assessment method here proposed is designated for the analysis and evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Shanxi. Trial application of the method shows that the current water exploitation and utilization in the province has reached a comparatively high degree for the limited carrying capacity, and approached its development limit. Therefore, under the present economic and technical conditions, effective measures are to be taken to heighten the limited carrying capacity, such as water saving strategy, diversion of water from other basins in this region so as to keep the sustainable social and economic development of the province.