基于熵权未确知理论的采空区自燃危险性评价

Spontaneous combustion risk assessment of mined-out area based on unascertained entropy-weight theory

针对采空区自燃危险性评价难以定量分析的现实,根据煤炭自燃发火机理,建立以煤的自燃倾向性、持续漏风供氧条件和聚热散热条件为一级指标的采空区自燃火灾危险性评价指标体系。基于信息熵和未确知测度理论,构建评价模型,并进行定性、定量分析。应用实例表明,该模型可正确评价采空区自燃发火的危险性。该研究为煤矿有效控制煤炭自燃、降低火灾危险提供了参考。

Aimed at the difficulty in quantitatively evaluating spontaneous combustion risk of minedout area, this paper introduces the spontaneous risk assessment system of mined-out area established, based on the spontaneous combustion mechanism. The evaluation system depends on spontaneous combustion tendency, oxygen providence for continuous wind leakage and heat concentration and dissipation. The risk assessment model was obtained, based on the information entropy and unascertained measurement theory. Furthermore, the model was quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed. The application of this model verifies that it is capable of correct evaluation of the spontaneous combustion of mined-out area. This study serves as the reference for effectively controlling the spontaneous combustion in coal mine and minimizing the fire risk.