青海省近10年耕地面积动态变化及驱动因子分析研究

STUDIES AND ANALYSIS ON DYNAMIC CHANGES OF ARABLE LAND AND DRIVING FORCES IN THE PAST 10 YEARS IN QINGHAI PROVINCE

该文采用SPSS主成分分析和聚类分析方法,对青海省1997～2007年耕地面积变化趋势以及变化因子进行综合分析研究。结果表明:近10年来青海省耕地面积总体呈下降趋势,且人均耕地资源也呈下降趋势。通过第一、第二主成分建立的回归模型表明,青海省耕地面积变化与该地区社会经济发展的强度和规模以及经济活动密度具有密切关系,聚类分析结果表明,粮食产量因子、油料因子、人口因子以及社会经济发展因子是影响青海省耕地面积变化的主要因素。

This paper adopts SPSS principal component analysis and clustering analysis methods and conducts comprehensive analysis on the changing trend of arable land and driving factors in Qinghai Province between 1997 and 2007. The results show that： during the past 10 years, the areas of arable land in Qinghai Province were declining generally, and so was the cultivated land resources per capita. Through regression model established by taking the first and second principal components, we understand that arable land variation in Qinghai Province has close relation with the strength, scale and activity density of social economic development. The clustering analysis indicates that the main factors influencing changes in cultivated land areas in Qinghai Province are food production factor, oil plant factor, population factor and socio -economic development factor.