特尔斐法对口服脊髓灰质炎疫苗的综合效果评价

Evaluation on OPV’s Comprehensive Effectiveness by Delphi Consultant Method

本文介绍了用特尔斐法对口服脊髓灰质炎（脊灰）疫苗（ＯＰＶ）进行综合效果评价的研究过程，共邀请了３５位专家进行咨询，２轮回表率分别为９４．２９％和９６．９７％。通过建立ＯＰＶ的综合效果评价指标体系，选择出２个一级指标和１２个二级指标。专家结果经等级一致性检验，Ｐ＜０．００１，说明专家的评价结果在等级上的一致性程度高。糖丸疫苗和液体疫苗的综合效果评分分别为０．６２０和０．８６４。结果表明：液体疫苗的综合效果评价要优于老生产线生产的糖丸疫苗。

This paper presents the research process of evaluation on OPV’s comprehensive effectiveness by Delphi consultant method. 35 experts were invited to consult. Two questionnaire’s return rate were 94.29% and 96.97% respectively. By setting up index for evaluating OPV’s comprehensive effectiveness, 12 quotas were selected. The result was tested by rank consistence, p<0.001, and it showed that result of experts’ evaluation had a higher degree of consistence on rank. Total scores of new liquid OPV and sugarcoated OPV were 0.864 and 0.620. respectively. It demonstrated that comprehensive effectiveness of new OPV was better than that of sugarcoated OPV which is manufactured by old productive line.