化工企业环境风险综合评价模式及其应用

Development of composite environment risk evaluation method for chemical enterprises and its application

针对现有化工企业环境风险评价模式在指标筛选与不确定性处理方面的不足,构建了包括源项因子、过程因子和受体因子3项一级指标、14项二级指标的评价指标体系层次结构;并提出了基于模糊层次分析法的指标权重确定方法和基于模糊隶属度的指标风险水平确定方法,计算化工企业环境风险综合评价值,判定风险等级.以上海某化工企业作为案例,验证了本评价模式的有效性;根据评估,若将该企业迁至人口密度较低的工业区(低于2000人/km2)并控制风险物质在容器设备中的充装率(低于80%),可使其风险综合评价值从0.75(Ⅳ级风险)降至0.5(Ⅲ级风险).

A new environmental risk evaluation index system made up of 3 first-grade indicators including source indicator,process indicator and receiving indicator,and 14 second-grade indicators was established to overcome the limitation of indicators selecting and uncertainty processing in traditional evaluation methods for chemical enterprises.The evaluation system was further quantified by employing fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process programming to reduce the uncertainty of indicator＇s weighted value and fuzzy membership degree to ascertain the indicator＇s risk level.The newly developed method was applied to environmental risk evaluation of a given chemical enterprise in Shanghai to prove its availability.It was found that the composite environmental risk value of this enterprise could be reduced from 0.75（risk rank Ⅳ） to 0.59（risk rank Ⅲ） by moving it to an industrial area with population density less than 2000 person/km2 and keeping chemicals in equipment with filling ratio lower than 80%.